The Bulletin – Economic Outlook December

The ECB cut its repo rate by a quarter point in November and the market is generally expecting further easing. The Bank had raised rates earlier in the year, by a cumulative 0.5%, taking the repo rate to 1.5%, and most analysts had expected a straightforward reversal, implying that 1% would again be the floor for ECB rates in this cycle.
That may not be the case and we expect rates to fall to at least 0.75% in the near term. This would still be above that of the UK (0.5%) and the US (0.25%) and a number of developments may persuade the Bank’s Governing Council that there is nothing sacred about 1%. The ECB already believes that the risks to growth in the euro zone are to the downside and the data of late certainly points to the possibility of at least one quarter of negative growth – the euro’s composite PMI index picked up marginally in November, but the 47.0 reading was the third consecutive month below 50 and hence implying contraction. Analysts have also cut their forecasts for growth in the euro area, with the OECD now projecting a mild recession, with negative growth forecast for the current quarter and the first quarter of 2012. As a result euro growth is now projected by the OECD to emerge at only 0.2% for next year as a whole.
The stresses within euro markets have also intensified, despite the ECB injecting huge sums into the money market. That has pushed overnight rates down to 0.75% but banks are prepared to deposit money back to the ECB at 0.25% rather than lend to each other. The result is that market interest rates are much higher – 3-month cash is currently at 1.45% and 1-year money is over 2%. The ECB recently announced its intention to provide cash to the market for a 13- month period, a first for the Bank, and speculation has grown that it may soon announce even longer term liquidity provisions, perhaps up to 2 years. Moreover, the ECB , alongside the other major central banks, has just cut the rate it charges for supplying US dollars to the banking sector in a further effort to relieve financial strains in the euro area.
The high credit premium for banks in part reflects their exposure to euro sovereign debt and the stresses there have intensified of late. Indeed, the past few weeks have seen a new development – the selling of euro sovereign bonds has moved from the peripheral economies to the core, including Germany. Some might argue that a repo cut against the backdrop may not have much affect but it would be a signal that the ECB under its new President is more flexible than of old and aware of the gravity of the situation. For Ireland, monetary easing would also provide some offset to another round of fiscal tightening.
Dr. Dan Mclaughlin
Waterford – Enterprise Week Round Up
Bank of Ireland’s November 2011 Enterprise Week kicked off in Waterford’s Granville Hotel to a packed house.
The key note speaker was Dragon’s Den entrepreneur Norah Casey, CEO of Harmonia Publishing. Norah again emphasised the possibilities for young women to achieve anything in modern Ireland. When Norah spoke at the Women in Business Enterprise Week’s in May she stated that “showing them good role models is one of the best ways to do it”
Anne Marie Caulfield is the current President of the Waterford Chamber of Commerce and a retailer in her own right with Super Value supermarkets in the south and south-east of the country. The Waterford Chamber of Commerce represents over 600 member companies at local level and also their interests to government and other key stakeholders.
Also represented was Retail Excellence Ireland in the presence of the current chairman Kevin Jephson. Retail Excellence Ireland is Ireland’s largest retail organization. It’s members come together to learn from each other and to promote best business practices with a view to resolving how best to solve the challenges facing retails in the current economic environment.
All speakers were keen to emphasise how important it is to foster a supportive small business community within a local region. Small businesses generate economic activity and employment in communities and are key to the survival of these communities. As Kevin Jephson pointed out “People buy people first; products second”. In a local community this is key to giving customers a “compelling reason to shop with you”. Anne Marie Caulfield added to this by restating the message from government that “the domestic recovery is going to be primarily driven by the SME sector. Enterprise Week is all about this.”
All the speakers at this kick-start event were keen to stress that essential to this recovery are Participation, Engagement, Sharing & Networking with other businesses operating in the SME sector. As mentors they also stressed the importance of a solid, viable business plan backed by research of your target market(s). Waterford proved to be an excellent springboard into Bank of Ireland’s Enterprise Week for the entrepreneurial community in the south and south-east
Newbridge – Enterprise Week Round Up
Most businesses in the current climate are working through this recession. This was the key message being promoted and communicated to SMEs and entrepreneurs from the greater Kildare area at the Enterprise Week event in Newbridge’s Kaedeen Hotel on November 22nd. A large number came to hear the advice and words of wisdom from Dragon Bobby Kerr and M.D of Global Rail Services Ivan Holloway.
Opening proceedings for the invited speakers was Ivan Holloway M.D of Global Rail Services, a provider of specialist railway services to the rail industry in both Ireland and the United Kingdom. Global Rail Services is in business ten years with over 300 employees and 200 active suppliers and contractors. Ivan shared his business experiences with the audience as he is a firm believer that “similar people in similar situations can share experiences” learning and benefiting from these experiences and challenges. He stressed the importance of networking for any business person of any level as being key to working through a recession. “Networking allows the sharing of insights into how something could be done better and this is where ideas come from” according to Ivan. Networking involves communication and people and again this common theme of the week was evident in Newbridge. “In any business your people are key, recruiting the right person for the right job is very important.” Ivan went on to tell the attendees that people who have the right skills and the right knowledge to compliment the business is vital. And learning, learning, learning. Ivan finished by telling the audience that “…the day you stop learning is the day you cease to be a business person or entrepreneur.”
It was a fitting link to the next guest speaker, Dragon extraordinaire Bobby Kerr. A very busy Bobby made time to speak at the event in Newbridge as he sees Enterprise Week as “a very special event” and he welcomed the symbolism of Bank of Ireland welcoming businesses into the branches around the country to showcase their products and services. Their efforts were demonstrative of a genuine willingness to help SMEs and entrepreneurs get the best start they could for their business in their respective localities.
Bobby was quick to point out that in a recession there is value around every corner and that the cost of doing business had fallen over the past three years. He emphasised again and again throughout his session that when starting in business you need the following;
• Passion for what you do; enough to warrant the sacrifices you will have to make to succeed
• A market for your product – that you are fulfilling a need
• An eye on costs – remember you are in business to make money
Kerr is instructive in what he preaches. With over 60 Insomnia branches around the country marketing the brand is done by utilising the resources at hand – the shops themselves. Often in high footfall areas the shop window becomes the place to advertise the Insomnia brand and values. This ensures marketing and advertising costs are kept to a minimum. The Dragon was keen to stress spending money appropriately to a business’ sales on its sales and marketing efforts. And of course the best marketing is free (or almost free) marketing – it will cost you little or nothing but it will get your message out there.
Bobby finished off by telling a by now rapt audience, “Forget the begrudgers, be thankful for what you have. There is real value out there at the moment, go out and get it.” And finally “Stay in the ring – it will only get better.”
One-Person Enterprise, Making it Happen
Are you interested insetting up your own craft business or in need of some advice about how to make your business more profitable? Many people are now using their hobby as a means of creating extra income and as a way to escape from the working world.
For some, it could be overwhelming to be a one-person-show or creator of a niche product that little people understand, however a community of individual business owners with similar interests and experiences could help.
Open Fair is a new national movement aimed at helping people make a living from their own skills and initiative. ‘OPEN‘ stands for One Person Enterprise.The Open Fair is an event held to give craft business owners an opportunity to meet new customers and network with other independent business people who could hold the key to success in the craft industry.
The ideology behind the OPEN Fair event is to create a community of self-employed small business owners all helping each other through shared experience. An example of this theory put into practice is Niamh O’Brien who lost her job as a legal secretary just before Christmas last year, and almost immediately opened a small shop in Ennis where she makes and sells upcycled clothes.
With many people across Ireland receiving severance packages the OPEN Fair could help get people like Niamh get off to the right start and become a successful entrepreneur.
If working for yourself interests you, the inspiration you are looking for could be at the OPEN Fair. For more information, click here
If you would like to see other content relating to one-person enterprises, check out the exclusive video section of this site here
Show Your Business – MyIrelandInfo.com
Welcome to the first ‘Show Your Business’ feature from our LinkedIn group. We’ll be showcasing member’s businesses each week, starting with Gerard Lynch, Director at MyIrelandInfo.com, as he gives us some insight around his company.
MyIrelandInfo.com is part of A Global Tourist Information Network www.mydestination.com. We are a one stop shop for people who are tired of jumping from site to site to organise their golf, accommodation, restaurants, entertainment etc.
Founded in 2006 by two young entrepreneurs on their summer holidays in Marbella the business has grown to over 100 destinations in just 5 years and has been so successful that the founders never returned to University to complete their degrees.
“We launched the Irish section of the site in Jan. 2011 and already we have over 8,000 visitors per month, to the Ireland pages and are growing rapidly. Mydestination.com had 8 million visitors to the site last year and is on target for 20 million for 2011.
BUSINESS AFTER HOURS NETWORKING
Dublin Chamber have announced their ‘Business After Hours’ series of networking events. These are designed for both small and medium businesses to meet in an informal way to exchange ideas, information and contact details.Check here for more details and how to get involved.As always, if you have news of any new initiatives for SMEs /entrepreneurs please let us know.
HIGHLIGHTS FROM EPISODE 4 IN THE DEN!
This week saw Norah Casey pull even further ahead of the other Dragons with ANOTHER investment! So far she has invested a whopping €107,500 in just four episodes. With the nearest Dragon, Gavin Duffy, a full €70,000 behind her it seems unlikely that anyone will catch up with her at this stage!
First into the Den this week was Thomas Kinsella with the ‘Cut n’ Curl’ scissors. Thomas was asking a big investment of €70,000 to help get his product to market. He obviously wasn’t banking on their being a nurse in the Den though and Norah quickly refuted his claims that the scissors would reduce the risk of infection in hospitals. Pretty soon all the dragons bar Gavin declared themselves out. Gavin obviously saw something the others didn’t and offered the full amount for 51% of the business. Losing control of his company was not something that Thomas was interested in and after trying to negotiate with Gavin he turned down the offer.
Useful events for SMEs and those seeking investment
Some interesting events and conferences for SMEs and entrepreneurs coming up at the end of the month.
At the RDS in Dublin from 6pm. Dave Harvey, founder of City Channel, and presenter on Newstalk will talk about how media can can benefit SMEs with a minimal budget. This will be followed by round table networking. Called the ‘Road to Recovery Meeting’, this is a free event and takes place on 22nd March. You can get more details here. …
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